Description:
The “multistage approach” assumes that countries gradually move through several stages inbetween Annex I and Non-Annex I with targets of increasing stringency, as opposed to the current system of two stages (Annex I and Non-Annex I). This approach would reflect that countries today have different levels of economic development and therefore have different obligations under a future climate treaty.
The starting point for grouping countries is to assess their characteristics and to define, to what stage they best correspond. Usually a country “graduates” into the next stage, when it exceeds a certain threshold expressed in, e.g., emissions per capita or GDP per capita.
Such multistage approaches are developed by a number of organizations. One option would be to define four such stages e.g.
a) No Commitments Stage, where countries have no binding emission obligations (as the current Non-Annex I)
b) Decarbonisation Stage, where countries will have GHG intensity targets expressed as emissions per GDP
c) Stabilization Stage, where countries stabilize their absolute emissions
d) Reduction Stage, where countries need to reduce their absolute emissions
The critical issue about this approach is to ensure that a sufficient number of countries move to higher stages. Regular review of each country's situation and assessment whether it graduates into the next stage would be necessary.
Further research:
RIVM, Netherlands
HWWA, Germany
Ecofys
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