Description
The ultimate objective of the Convention calls for stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. In order to aim for this objective, the international community needs to define the level of climate change that would constitute such “dangerous” interference. The inherent uncertainty and the subjectiveness of “dangerous” prevented the international community from taking such a decision or even from officially discussing such levels in the past.
The main question is, whether the international climate policy should aim for a long-term stabilization level and, if so, which level. A discussion on the level of greenhouse gas concentrations that are “dangerous” and that are not “dangerous” may be instructive to understand the magnitude and scope of the problems ahead even without a specific decision on a level.
Alternatively, a “hedging strategy” could be followed, that is the definition of a shorter-term goal, from which it is still possible to reach a range of desirable long-term goals. Once the short-term goal is reached, decisions on next steps can be made in light of new knowledge. To implement this idea, the international community could agree on an intermediate global emission target for the medium term, e.g. 2020 or 2030. It would define the maximum level of greenhouse gases that the global community should emit in that year. It would be set at a level allowing that a range of desired stabilization options can sill be reached.
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